Alongside a NATO summit in London, Vladimir Putin is using climate change to exacerbate French-American discord. The Russian leader’s objective is to degrade NATO’s unity and support Russia’s readmission to the community of nations.
The time is ripe for Putin’s agitation. Going into this summit, the Trump administration is skeptical of European defense free-riding, hostile to Europe’s antipathy for the White House, and angered by French President Emmanuel Macron’s deference to China. Macron certainly hasn’t helped by recently suggesting that Trump is fueling NATO’s “brain death.”
Putin recognizes that climate change offers a unique opportunity. It plays perfectly to the policy and ideological division between the Trump administration and its European allies, fueling negative emotions on both sides. It also advances Putin’s case that Russia be readmitted to the G-8.
But being a crafty former KGB lieutenant colonel, Putin knows his disinformation game must be finely tuned. Putin wants to weaken NATO while appearing to do nothing of the sort. Fortunately for the Russian leader, he’s the world’s best at playing the West.
A recent summit in Moscow, Putin referenced America’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord. He observed that “this is a mistake. But I can understand the logic behind this decision. Because the previous U.S. administration assumed obligations regarding [carbon emission] limits that were difficult for the United States.”
Keenly aware of Trump’s ego and his hostility towards the Obama administration, Putin is criticizing Trump while simultaneously saying that Obama forced his hand. Then comes Putin’s outstretched hand to Macron: “We should try to involve the current U.S. administration in these matters.” Putin added, “It is another area for our cooperation. I believe we can do this. President Trump has said more than once that he is not planning to destroy the global environment.”
It’s a pitch-perfect salute to Macron.
After all, Putin knows that Macron views America’s prospective return to carbon reduction agreements as his keystone foreign policy objective. And Putin also knows that Macron knows that Trump respects Putin. By offering Russian help to “try to involve” Trump in new carbon reduction efforts, Putin is actually saying, “Hey, Macron, let me back into the club and I’ll support your dealings with Trump.”
It gets better for Putin because the weaponization of carbon emissions also helps Russia directly. Russia’s largely unregulated energy export industry can fill whatever gap results from reduced Western production. Here we see the rationale behind Russia’s fanatical anti-fracking agenda.
Of course, Putin also knows that this NATO summit is unlikely to be a success. NATO leaders are likely to bicker and disseminate leaks against each other. If so, it makes Putin’s fake offers of cooperation all the more appealing. If Putin gets back into the EU’s good graces, sanctions relief will follow. NATO will then fray between America, Britain, the Baltics, and Poland on one side, and all the other powers on the other. That’s a tragedy, in that France is a critical NATO ally.
Putin is just doing what he has to in order to win and win big.
