Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election was a striking reminder that anything can happen in politics. And it suggests that the Democrats’ efforts to block Brett Kavanaugh are not entirely hopeless, even though their success looks unlikely at present. Despite appearances, Kavanaugh’s fate is not preordained. Whether or not he clears the Senate depends ultimately on the context in which members and the constituents they represent evaluate his nomination.

Contrary to popular punditry, Republicans are not off to a great start. Instead of discussing the proper role of a Supreme Court justice or emphasizing Kavanaugh’s ability to perform it, Republicans have spent the past eight weeks reinforcing the Democrats’ narrative. Specifically, the hardline position they have taken in the dispute over which of his documents senators should have access to has helped Democrats create a more favorable environment in which to prevent his confirmation.