When President Joe Biden narrowly defeated Donald Trump in 2020, he carried 87% of the black vote and 65% of the Latino vote while losing white voters 41% to 58%.
Now, multiple recent polls show Biden’s support among minority voters collapsing, including just 63% of black people in the most recent USA Today poll and 66% in the latest New York Times poll. Both polls also show Trump outright winning Latinos, including by a 46% to 40% advantage for Trump in the New York Times poll.
As much as it might be tempting to blame these numbers on Biden’s age or Trump’s celebrity appeal, Gallup numbers that track party identification show similar, if not yet as dramatic, shifts among black people and Latinos away from Democrats and toward Republicans.
Just four years ago in 2020, an overwhelming 77% of black people told Gallup that they considered themselves Democrats compared to just 11% who said Republican. That margin has slipped to 66% Democrat and 19% Republican today. Among Latinos, in 2020, 57% said they were Democrats compared to 29% who said they were Republican. Now, just 47% of Latinos consider themselves Democrats, and the percent saying they were Republican has risen to 35%.
Biden’s performance in office is assuredly playing a large role in driving these numbers. Despite what Democrats and their media allies may claim, Bidenomics has not been good for minority voters. Sure, gross domestic product may be up, and the stock market is near all-time highs, but aggregate GDP numbers don’t put food on the table, and few working-class minority families own stocks.
What Bidenonmics has delivered to minority voters are the highest food prices in 30 years, unaffordable rents, let alone mortgages, and record-high credit card debt. Biden’s wealthy white college-educated voters may be sitting pretty in expensive homes with fat 401ks, but the reality of Bidenomics is much bleaker for the working class.
There are other individual topics that aren’t turning out to be as popular with minority voters as the far-left activists that staff Democratic offices and campaigns thought they would be. Turns out that, unlike their white Democratic counterparts, most black voters want more spending on police, not less. And most Latinos prefer a secure border, not the catch-and-release disaster Biden has delivered.
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More importantly, though, the larger vision of America that the Republican Party is selling is just more appealing to minority voters as they become more prosperous. Explaining why Miami-Dade County turned Republican for the first time ever in 2022, former Rep. Carlos Curbelo told reporters that the Democratic Party has embraced a “victimhood discourse” that focuses on “what Democrats consider to be the fundamental injustices and structural abuses in American society.”
Republicans, on the other hand, proudly believe the United States is the best country on Earth, and they aren’t embarrassed to say it. For many immigrants and their descendants who, in Curbelo’s words, “feel very blessed to be in the United States,” the confidence and conviction of Republicans fit more closely with their understanding of the world.
