President Trump should end the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela by treating that nation’s illegitimate ruler, Nicolás Maduro, the same way President George H.W. Bush treated Panama’s Manuel Noriega in 1989.
Bush used the American military to oust Noriega from power within four days. Trump might be able to oust Maduro even more quickly, probably within two days, perhaps without firing a shot.
Trump should call in the top leadership of Congress and secure unanimous buy-in (more on that later), and then announce publicly that if Maduro doesn’t relinquish power within 48 hours, U.S. airstrikes will begin — against Maduro’s regime, but on behalf of the Venezuelan people. He should say that all Venezuelan military leaders should pledge allegiance to interim president Juan Guaidó, but that those who don’t will be treated as targets of the U.S. armed forces unless they leave the country via public requests for asylum from other nations.
Trump should also announce that as soon as Maduro and his regime have relinquished power, the United States, via congressional appropriation, will provide $3 billion in humanitarian and reconstruction aid. The humanitarian aid would flow through the international Red Cross. The smaller pot of reconstruction money should flow through the legitimate Guaidó administration, but with oversight by a mutually agreeable international body. The United States itself would conduct no direct nation-building activities.
It stands to reason that the threat alone might persuade the Venezuelan generals to change sides and oust Maduro. They know their military is puny compared to the might of the United States. They don’t want to die.
If not, though, and if Maduro will not leave voluntarily, then the airstrikes, carefully targeted at Maduro’s key military installations, should commence. The U.S. has plenty of military bases in the Caribbean basin from which to stage assaults. The strikes can and should be swift and sure, and should be accompanied by ground commando forces. Maduro quickly would be toast, put into hiding just like a whimpering Noriega was.
Bush had legitimate grounds to oust Noriega. Trump’s grounds for evicting Maduro are even more so. As with Noriega, Maduro has maintained power only by illegitimate operation of an election. As with Noriega, Maduro’s regime itself is implicated in major drug trafficking, one in this case described as “a cocaine superhighway to the United States.”
Panama, however, did not face a massive, sickening, humanitarian crisis with huge swaths of its population starving in the streets. Venezuela does. Noriega did not have opposition recognized as the legitimate government by 54 foreign governments, including most of his Latin American neighbors. Maduro does. When Bush acted, the U.S. invasion was actually condemned by the Organization of American States. If Trump were to act, on the other hand, he would do so with the full support of the OAS, which already recognizes Guaidó, not Maduro, as the legitimate president of Venezuela.
Bush’s operation succeeded in Panama while causing no more than 600 deaths. Trump’s would not only cause even fewer fatalities, but it would be seen as saving tens of thousands from starving.
For all those reasons, Trump should act after fully briefing congressional leadership. And, while several technical considerations argue against a formal declaration of war, Trump should pledge that he will waive any objections to the War Powers Act and abide by its time limitations. He should make clear he is not advancing an imperial presidency or a new forever war.
This should be a unified American action, in support of American interests in the stability and humanitarian needs of the American hemisphere.
