After Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush ended the Cold War, almost every U.S. administration entered office with grand diplomatic ambition. Bill Clinton wanted to end the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Barack Obama sought a reset with Russia, normalization with Cuba, and outstretched his hand to Iran. Donald Trump courted both the Taliban and Kim Jong Un. President Joe Biden has again gone all in on Iran.

Its desire to shape legacy often leads the White House to twist intelligence. Contrary to popular wisdom, administrations politicize intelligence less to validate war and more to justify peace despite evidence of an adversary’s insincerity. But if the White House and State Department will not honestly assess their outreach to rogue regimes and terrorist groups, then how can academics and analysts determine if diplomacy has really worked or if claims of progress and moderation are a political mirage?