DOVER, New Hampshire — The Democratic presidential race in New Hampshire appears to be changing too quickly for the polls to keep up. The stories that hit the news on Sunday focusing on Joe Biden’s difficulties might actually have understated the former vice president’s problems. After all, they were based in part on surveys that measured voter opinion between Feb. 4-7 or Feb. 4-8. In a situation like this, that’s a long time ago.
“You think Biden is losing support by the hour?” I asked an experienced New Hampshire politico as he arrived to check out the Pete Buttigieg rally here in the southeastern part of the state Sunday afternoon.
“By the minute,” he said.
Nearly one-third of voters here remain undecided just hours before Tuesday’s primary. That certainly appeared to be true of many in the Buttigieg crowd. But being undecided does not mean a voter is open to any candidate. And that looks like more bad news for Biden.
In this way: By and large, the people who attended the Buttigieg rally saw themselves on the centrist side of the Democratic electorate. Of course, they would vote for any Democrat over President Trump, but in Tuesday’s primary, they tend to stay away from the two leading candidates farthest to the left, Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
The conventional wisdom says that would leave them with three choices among the candidates with a plausible chance to do well: Biden, Buttigieg, and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. The problem for Biden is that many of the centrists seem to have already squeezed him out of the picture.
“I don’t like Bernie and I don’t like Elizabeth Warren,” said Ann Cudlip of Brentwood. “They’re too far left for me. I need center, and I need somebody who can defeat Trump. That’s my thing.”
“Who does that leave you with?”
“Amy and Pete,” she said, explaining that she now gives Buttigieg the edge because of his performance in the Iowa caucuses.
“What about Biden?”
“Too old,” she said.
A few moments later, Anne Packard, of Holderness, called herself a “moderate independent” and said Buttigieg appeals to her.
“Who else appeals to you?”
“Amy.”
“Anyone else?”
“I love Elizabeth Warren but I can’t vote for her.”
“Why not?”
“I hate Medicare.”
“You hate Medicare?”
“I hate it. Been on it for 11 years, and it’s awful.”
“What about Bernie?”
“I saw him four years ago. Love him to bits, but no.”
“So, it’s really a moderate thing for you?”
“Yes.”
“Which leaves you with Buttigieg and Klobuchar?”
“Yes.”
Is any name missing from that exchange? The striking thing about the conversation was that Packard went through all the candidates who mattered to her, emphasized her own centrism, singled out Buttigieg and Klobuchar, and never once mentioned Biden, even when given a prompt. Biden is just out of the picture.
No one expressed any dislike for Biden. They were actually sympathetic to a number of his positions. But they have concluded that he is not the one.
“If he was a little younger. I think his age, unfortunately, is a big disadvantage for him,” said Diane Bantis, of Manchester. “I think, physically, he is showing signs that he might not be up for the challenge.”
“He’s too old,” Cheri Sullivan, of North Conway, said simply.
Buttigieg is on a roll, and perhaps just as importantly, is trying hard to give the impression that he is on a roll. After the Dover event — he covered the standard topics and did not say anything remarkable — his campaign sent out word that 1,113 people attended, “the largest campaign rally Dover has seen this cycle.”
Earlier on Sunday, Buttigieg drew more than 1,800 people to his rally in Nashua, which the campaign said was “the largest event of any Democrat this cycle.”
The polls, even if they are running a day or two behind, tell the story of Buttigieg’s rise. On Feb. 1, before the Iowa caucuses, he stood at 14.2% in the RealClearPolitics average of New Hampshire polls. Now, he is at 21.3%.
They tell the opposite story for Biden. On Feb. 1, he was at 17.8% in the average of New Hampshire polls. Now, he’s at 12.7%. That puts him fourth in the standings, behind leader Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren. And there is speculation Biden might end up fifth if he sinks a little more and Klobuchar rises a bit.
As the experienced New Hampshire politico said, for Biden, and for the rest of the field as well, things appear to be changing not by the hour but by the minute.
