When I first got to D.C., in 2001, Virginia was the Republican state abutting the District and Maryland was the Democratic one. The Old Dominion had a GOP governor and two Republican senators, and even after Democrat Mark Warner became governor, it still seemed like a Republican lock for presidential elections — especially after 2004, when George W. Bush carried it by a comfortable eight-point margin.
Times have certainly changed. The Old Dominion now has two Democratic senators, Terry McAuliffe is governor, and it barely seems like a swing state anymore on the presidential level, having gone for Democrats three times in a row.
Republicans maintain their foothold in the state legislature, but the voting power of the D.C., suburbs has been magnified in statewide races. And the 2017 governor’s race does not look especially promising for Team Red in a new early poll from Quinnipiac.
Former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie, whose surprisingly strong but losing run in the 2014 Senate race set the stage for his gubernatorial run this year, currently stands at just 33 percent support in a general election and trails both of the Democratic hopefuls by double digits. Former Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello, who briefly represented a district in the southern part of the state, leads him by 13 points. Ralph Northam, McAuliffe’s lieutenant governor, leads him by 11. (Looking ahead to the 2018 Senate race, the same poll gives Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine an even more commanding 20-plus-point lead over either Laura Ingraham or Carly Fiorina.)
Meanwhile, in the Democratic primary, Perriello’s dark-horse candidacy seems to be picking up steam. Quinnipiac has younger Perriello, who is perceived as a better representative of the progressive wing of the party, overtaking Northam, the presumed favorite, with 25 percent support to his 20 percent. A large number remain undecided ahead of the June 13 primary.
It’s still early in the year, but these numbers can’t be encouraging for Republicans. They face natural headwinds in 2017, as usually happens when a Republican becomes president, but the question is how bad it’s going to be.
The first real federal election test for Republican voter enthusiasm and backlash to the Trump presidency comes tonight in Kansas, where Republicans will try to hold on to the vacant U.S. House seat that Mike Pompeo gave up to become President Trump’s CIA director. The GOP has absolutely no business losing that one. If they do, it bodes ill for two other upcoming House races in Georgia and Montana, as well as for this November’s general election in Virginia.
