“Momentum,” when mentioned in politics, is often a meaningless term. When Sen. Ted Cruz won Wisconsin and then cleaned up in delegate selection in various states earlier this month, the commentary was Cruz is behind, but he has the momentum.
Shrewder observers suggested that perhaps instead of “momentum” what Cruz had was a two-week stretch of the calendar that fit his strengths: Wisconsin was a conservative state with healthy communities, a healthy economy and a healthy GOP; and the trench warfare over delegates is a Cruz strength. I think that’s correct, and so Cruz didn’t “lose his momentum” in New York — he lost New York.
Momentum, as a concept of physics, is the tendency of an object in motion to continue in that direction at that speed. As a metaphor to sports and politics, it is the idea that the success you have had recently will cause success going forward. There was little or no reason to believe that would be true here — that Cruz’s win in Wisconsin helped him gather delegates in Wyoming, and that these would help him do okay in New York. Why would a voter in Staten Island give a whiff about Waukesha or Wyoming?
Momentum sometimes is real in politics, and here is where it is most relevant: when voters are choosing from among candidates A and B, as a way of defeating candidate C.
In 2012, for instance, about a third of the GOP was just looking for a non-Romney candidate. So when Tim Pawlenty had decent poll numbers, that caused other non-Romneys to flock to him. When Pawlenty lost the straw poll, that caused voters to flee. Success led to success, and then failure led to failure. The cycle went on. Michele Bachmann rose after the straw poll, and was replaced by Rick Perry, who was replaced by Herman Cain, who was replaced by Newt Gingrich, who was replaced by Rick Santorum. For all of them, good poll numbers attracted more voters, because the good poll numbers showed voters that this was the most viable anti-Romney.
Cruz has benefited from that dynamic a bit throughout this primary: a win in Iowa showed conservatives that Cruz was the conservative candidate. Marco Rubio’s and Jeb Bush’s failure created consolidation. What Cruz has needed to do recently is to knock Ohio Gov. John Kasich out of the race. Cruz winning Wisconsin could, theoretically, have brought many Kasich people in places like New York and Maryland over to Cruz. It doesn’t appear that’s happened. Cruz’s past success isn’t leading to new successes. There is no Cruzmentum.
Timothy P. Carney, the Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
