The Russian military has announced the start of tactical nuclear weapons exercises. Russia’s Southern Military District, which has its headquarters 60 miles east of Ukraine in Rostov-on-Don, is in charge of these exercises. That command holds responsibility for operations in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula.

These nuclear exercises are primarily designed to intimidate the European Union and the United States against increased support for Ukraine. The exercises likely have a secondary intent of attempting to scare U.S. voters into opposing continued support for Ukraine due to fear of nuclear escalation. This dovetails with Russia’s knowledge that President Joe Biden has shown risk aversion in the face of Russian threats and that GOP presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump has suggested he would reduce support to Ukraine if elected. These factors underline why it will be instructive whether Russia carries out its exercises in Crimea.