In response to North Korea’s apparent submarine-launched ballistic missile test on Wednesday, President Trump should issue Kim Jong Un with a red-line warning: If any future missile launch transits outside of the Sea of Japan, Trump will suspend nuclear negotiations and immediately increase U.S. sanctions.
There’s no question that North Korea has embraced escalation with its new test.
The U.S. appears confident that Wednesday’s missile was either launched from an at-sea barge or a submerged platform. This is thus a precursor test to a test from North Korea’s new Soviet Romeo-class variant submarine. While that submarine does not pose a game-changing threat to Hawaii or the U.S. mainland, it threatens our bases at Okinawa and Guam, and our Japanese and South Korean allies.
Still, the real problem here is how Kim’s submarine-launched ballistic missile program illustrates his growing boldness.
With U.S.-North Korean nuclear negotiations recommencing on Saturday, Kim is effectively telling Trump to make concessions fast or face new brinkmanship. Kim’s steady drip-drip escalation alongside warm letters to Trump has centered his strategy since last year. Kim wants to retain Trump’s affection while simultaneously nudging Trump to believe he must give Kim some relief if peace is to prevail and his “deal of the century” is to succeed.
That deal remains a noble ambition, but Trump cannot play Kim’s game.
These missile tests and Kim’s ongoing covert research of warhead reentry vehicles are steadily improving his credible nuclear strike capability against America. That represents an intolerable threat to American security. But if Kim reaches that capability, U.S. options will quickly become very unpleasant.
Remaining open to diplomacy, Trump should make clear to Kim that every time North Korea escalates, America will escalate in turn. This incident deserves Trump’s warning that it is incompatible with Kim’s assertions of good faith. Trump should warn Kim that if he does it again, increased U.S. sanctions and suspended negotiations will follow.
Kim must decide between slow brinkmanship, or serious diplomacy. He cannot have both.
