Western strategic interests in Ukraine center on avoiding a direct NATO–Russia confrontation while ensuring Ukraine survives Russia’s attempt to subjugate it. U.S. weapons stockpiles, especially regarding air defense and finite offensive capabilities such as Army Tactical Missile Systems, must also be closely monitored to avoid depletion. This is a key concern vis-a-vis the growing risk of war with China.

Still, contrary to the Kremlin’s propaganda, allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons against Russian military targets does not cross Russian red lines. It does not do so for the same two reasons that allowed NATO to avoid direct war with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.