FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver introduced his new presidential election forecast with an almost 5,000-word essay on the state of the race between President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. You can read it here, but the short version is this: 

Thanks to commanding Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, all states Biden won in 2020, Biden needs to win all three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Silver’s new model has Biden winning two out of three of those states 54% of the time, but only winning all three of them 32% of the time.