Former President Donald Trump’s criticisms of NATO indicate that his potential second term in office is likely to undermine the trans-Atlantic security link. Nonetheless, given the close ties Trump developed with Polish officials during his first term and Warsaw’s high defense spending, any threat to Poland from Vladimir Putin’s Russia will require a strong response from the White House. To retain credibility as a world leader, Trump cannot remain passive if Moscow directly challenges key NATO states that are massively spending on their defense.

Regardless of the party in power, Poland has a consistent defense policy in which spending is climbing and its armed forces are expanding. According to the most recent NATO statistics, a record 23 out of 32 countries have reached or surpassed the alliance’s 2% defense spending target. Poland leads at 4.12%, followed by Estonia (3.43%), the United States (3.38%), and Latvia (3.15%). In 2023, Poland recorded the highest defense spending in Central Europe, and it will continue to raise its military budget and double the number of its armed forces to 300,000 personnel.