Is a replacement really stronger against Trump than Biden would have been?

Published July 21, 2024 3:50pm ET



President Joe Biden was collapsing in general election polls and was way behind former President Donald Trump in swing-state polls. Biden was even more likely to lose than the polls indicated because he wouldn’t be able to campaign vigorously, and because he would most likely bomb his convention speech or a second debate — or both.

Ditching Biden helps the Democrats’s odds of keeping the White House in November. That’s obvious, because otherwise, very few Democrats would have called on Biden to drop out.

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