The market meltdown triggered over the weekend remains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 down more than 2% at press time and the Nasdaq 100 broaching correction territory. In large part, Monday’s sell-off at the morning bell was instigated by the Bank of Japan’s rate hike, which effectively ended the country’s negative interest rate policy precedent and, in turn, led to a 12% crash of the Nikkei 225. But the market movement seems to be less about a fear of an imminent recession and more about the perils of geopolitical chaos sown in part by the failures of Joe Biden’s presidency and now the increasing odds that Vice President Kamala Harris succeeds in beating former President Donald Trump for a second term in office.

It’s true that July’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics triggered the Sahm rule, which determines a recessionary cycle has begun when the three-month average unemployment rate reaches a half-point above the 12-month low. But July’s unemployment rate of 4.3% remains below the historic average of more than 5%, and perhaps more importantly, our persistently inverted yield curve has reverted to normal, a sign of confidence from Treasury investors that we’re actually moving away from the risks of a recession. The dramatic decrease in short-term Treasury yields, which have an inverse relationship with the value of a given Treasury itself, also signifies increasing confidence that the Federal Reserve will finally pivot and cut the federal funds rate from its 23-year high at next month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Further bolstering the notion that U.S. bonds remain the global haven of value is Berkshire Hathaway’s recent reveal that Warren Buffett has amassed a quarter-trillion dollars of short-term Treasurys, more than the Fed itself has in its balance sheet.