Thirty-six years ago today, Republican presidential campaign manager Lee Atwater was in a ragingly foul mood as he awaited the next day’s start of the Republican National Convention. Therein lies a lesson for those who prematurely insist a particular election result is inevitable.

Already this year, we are on the third different iteration of supposedly “sure things” in this presidential race. First, my inbox was full of people insisting there was no way Democrats could replace President Joe Biden on their ticket. Second, the same inbox was full of people saying there was just no way former President Donald Trump could lose this fall after he survived an assassination attempt with a supposedly indomitable spirit. And now I see some know-it-alls saying Vice President Kamala Harris is in an almost no-lose position.