What the census can tell us about swing states

Jonathan Draeger, reporter for RealClearPolitics, wrote Tuesday, “The presidential race couldn’t be tighter.” Unless, of course, it turns out not to be nearly as close as this season’s run of polls suggests it is.

One indication that it might not be was the New York Times-Siena poll released this week showing Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in Florida 55% to 41%. That’s quite a switch from the 48.85% to 48.84% by which George W. Bush carried the state in 2000 or the 48.6% to 47.4% there for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.