As President Trump moves closer to fulfilling his promise to withdraw American forces from Afghanistan as part of a deal with the Taliban, some in the foreign policy establishment and on Capitol Hill are aggressively pushing back against any drawdown or peace agreement. This group includes retired Gen. David Petraeus, who recently argued that withdrawing from Afghanistan would repeat President Barack Obama’s mistake of “abandoning” Iraq.
This argument is specious, wrongly assuming that the two wars are the same. Yet many prominent policymakers are repeating it to reinforce the narrative that the president would pay a price in the court of public opinion if he ends America’s nearly 18-year-old war in Afghanistan. However, polling data and academic research shows the opposite is true: If he were to completely withdraw from Afghanistan, President Trump would enjoy strong support from the American people, including from veterans and military families who have borne the brunt of the conflict.
Regardless of the political implications, ending America’s involvement in the war in Afghanistan is the right thing to do. We were justified invading the country after 9/11 in order to hold the Taliban accountable for sheltering al Qaeda while also eliminating or capturing those who were responsible for the deadly attacks against our homeland.
We have largely accomplished those objectives by punishing the Taliban, severely degrading al Qaeda’s central branch, and killing Osama bin Laden. Following the early years of the war, however, the American military effort largely shifted away from accomplishing its original objectives and moved towards an open-ended nation-building effort with no clear path to success and no clear connection to our safety.
This mission creep has unnecessarily lengthened the war and cost us immensely in terms of lives and resources. Dozens of troops are killed and wounded in action every year, and over $45 billion in taxpayers’ money is spent annually in support of the Afghan war. This is on top of the nearly 2,400 service members killed in action and the over $1 trillion already spent.
Fortunately, the American people have largely come to recognize the futility of continuing to fight an endless war in Afghanistan. According to polling conducted by YouGov, 57% of Americans would support the president if he chose to withdraw all American forces from Afghanistan, compared with 19% who would oppose such a move. Almost half the respondents also agreed that it was not a responsibility of the United States to ensure that Afghanistan had a liberal democratic government, while only a quarter disagreed.
Veterans and military families, two groups that strongly support President Trump, also strongly support withdrawing American forces from Afghanistan. Polling commissioned by Concerned Veterans for America showed that 60% would support the president if he chose to withdraw. Similarly, a poll recently released by Pew Research showed that a majority of veterans believe that when all the costs are taken into account, the whole of the Afghanistan War has not been worth fighting.
Academic research additionally demonstrates that President Trump’s advocacy for more restraint abroad may have benefited him in key districts and states in 2016. A 2017 study from professors Douglas Kriner and Francis Shen showed that in key counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, higher levels of military casualties correlated to higher levels of support for candidate Trump. However, Kriner and Shen warned that dynamic could reverse itself if Trump continued our endless military engagements abroad.
Despite rhetoric to the contrary by many elected officials and talking heads, Trump is on the right side of public opinion when it comes to ending our endless wars — especially in regard to Afghanistan. The American people, particularly those who have shouldered the burden of our conflicts after 9/11, understand that our “forever wars” are not making us safer.
Dan Caldwell is a senior adviser to Concerned Veterans for America and the foreign policy and healthcare campaign manager at Stand Together. He is a veteran of the Marine Corps and the Iraq War.
