“Defund the police” might be absorbing our attention in light of George Floyd’s tragic death. But which mayor will be the first to double down on the police?
Because even if the doubling down involves police reforms, as it should, you can bet that it’s coming.
After all, murder rates are skyrocketing across the nation. I suspect that the spiking violence has two causes. First, the diversion of police resources to deal with George Floyd-related protests and incidences of looting. Second, based on how police officers have previously responded to moments of blurred outrage against their profession, the increased unwillingness of officers to take risks in predominantly minority neighborhoods. Many officers will be asking why they should risk their lives and their family’s risk of losing a father or mother when politicians and the media are focused on slandering them.
Regardless, the mayhem over the past ten days has been distinct.
At the height of the Floyd protests on May 31, Chicago saw its highest one-day murder rate in sixty years. Eighteen people were gunned down. Things in the windy city haven’t improved much since then. A 15-year-old was killed in a double shooting on Monday night. Nine people were shot, two fatally, on Tuesday. Even for the carnage that always afflicts black communities in America’s third-largest city, this is extraordinary.
It’s not just Chicago.
Los Angeles saw five killings in the space of four days. Baltimore saw three shootings on Monday night, with Brooklyn seeing eight wounded by gunfire.
How many will die tonight? Hopefully none, but the evidence suggests otherwise.
All of this puts mayors in a very difficult position. They must grapple with generally legitimate protester demands that police forces hold themselves to higher standards of accountability. But most mayors also know that to disband the police would be to indirectly sign civilian death warrants. The leaked phone call between Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot and city aldermen proves as much. Away from the TV cameras, these politicians rightly fear the rising anarchy.
So what to do?
Well, the obvious answer is to deploy more police officers. We know that active policing constrains criminal activity. We know that where police officers are absent, criminality finds incentive. This really isn’t complicated.
What is complicated are the politics.
While police forces need more accountability, other reforms are also necessary. Cities need more flexible contracts with police unions. Contracts that, for example, would allow non-overtime deployment structures that evolve with crime patterns. Contracts that would allow city authorities to force out bad officers without navigating an endless series of legal challenges (this should also apply to other city workers).
At the same time, professional police officers need the leadership and support to do their jobs.
That means authority being given for aggressive counter-gang and counter-violent crime initiatives. It means action to ensure that police divisions are adequately staffed. It means paying officers who excel, rewarding commanders who get results, and forcing out leaders who fall short. And yes, it means standing with officers when a tragedy occurs in which, unlike with Floyd, there is no credible evidence of misconduct.
Unjustified police killings are more serious than other killings in that they represent a betrayal of the state responsibility to protect. But the statistics show that the dominant and primary threat to young black lives is not police officers, but rather those other young black men who choose to engage in shootings. Politicians should address that fact rather than pretending it doesn’t exist.
A mayor willing to do these things can get a grip on the murder mayhem. But unless they lead, mayors will find themselves caught between protester rage, criminal carnage, and hesitant police. Such a whirlwind is unlikely to find voter reward.
