Some musings early on election morning. The past several days have left almost all of America in suspense about who is going to be elected the country’s 47th president. Many scenarios remain in view after a turbulent campaign.
The surprising result of the highly regarded Selzer poll in Iowa, showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 47% to 44% in a state he carried by 53% to 45% in 2020, suggests something like a 1980 scenario: A surge of late deciders in the last days of the campaign toss aside their indecision and opt for a candidate they had hesitated to support. Both Pat Caddell, Jimmy Carter’s pollster, and Richard Wirthlin, Ronald Reagan’s pollster, assured me after the fact that, following the candidates’ single debate on Tuesday, Oct. 28, their campaigns’ weekend polling showed a huge surge toward Reagan. Caddell had the unpleasant task of telling President Carter on Monday morning that he wasn’t going to be reelected. Reagan won the popular vote 51% to 41% and carried 44 states.
