BEDFORD, N.H. — “When you get to the serious part of this,” Jeb Bush says, standing in the home of a supporter, surrounded by Republican voters, “I think you’re looking at the guy who’s gonna be the nominee.”
It’s understated, but that’s Bush’s proposed path to victory in a nutshell.
Jeb’s line Wednesday night echoed the argument his supporters made to me around the state: Republican voters tend to nominate the establishment guy — the boring, staid, responsible grown-up. This explains George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney. Jeb Bush seems to fit nicely into this lineup.
But maybe the rules have changed. Maybe Jeb isn’t George. Maybe Marco Rubio isn’t Pat Buchanan. And maybe the post-Tea Party GOP isn’t Jeb’s father’s GOP.
First, the polls — they’re ugly.
Bush hasn’t led a national poll since July, and he’s been in single digits in every national poll since early October. Here in the Granite state, he last led the polls in June, he’s been in single digits since August, and he’s generally in fourth or fifth place. And forget about Iowa — there former candidate Bobby Jindal was within the margin of error of Jeb.
Jeb isn’t just behind. He’s a mere blip in the polls. That’s why he and his supporters are sounding a silent-majority type argument.
“When it gets down to brass tacks — when it gets closer,” says Johanna Lawrence at the Jeb house party in Bedford, “people are going to get serious. Right now, people want entertainment.”
It’s a familiar argument: Republican voters are now “dating” Carson, Trump and Cruz, but eventually they’ll “marry” Jeb.
“He may be the one left standing when all the non-professional politicians drop off,” says Dave Booth at the Jeb house party, “when the excitement dies down.” After Jeb speaks, Booth tells me, “I can’t imagine the voters of the party not coming together behind him.”
Phil Taub, the lawyer hosting the party at his elegant home in the Mill Stone Terrace neighborhood of Bedford, expounds on the inadequacy of polls on two occasions that night. While introducing Jeb, he says, “We’re going to find out what the voters really think when they get in the voting booth.”
Matt and Michelle, a Manchester couple, showed up to see Jeb at the headquarters of Dyn, a tech company on the banks of the Merrimack River. They say they are undecided, but when you drill deeper, they sure sound like Jeb apologists. “Carson was a novelty,” and Trump is a joke, Matt says. “When you rule out those two guys, I think people are going be very open-minded.”
“I think people in New Hampshire take their job very seriously,” Matt says, “We have to do this for the country.”
Matt’s right. New Hampshire voters, even those with a preference, seem determined not to make up their mind until closer to Election Day. “I like Donald,” Jim Greatorex tells me outside Dyn’s office. Jim, a Dyn employee, is bald, wearing his hunting-camo Under Armour gear and acting as a bouncer of sorts for Jeb’s event. “But I got no problem with Jeb,” he tells me. “I could definitely swing.”
The first two New Hampshire voters I spoke with, including one volunteer at the Bedford house party, told me they probably wouldn’t decide until close to the early February primary.
“I think I need to spend more time” checking out the candidates, Skip Dunlap tells me, wielding his trowel to spackle the walls of the state Senate chamber in Concord. “I’m not up to speed.”
And many of those voters who launched defenses of Jeb, such as Booth and Lawrence, at first told me they were undecided. If they’re telling pollsters the same thing, Bush has reason to hope.
One should never underestimate Republicans’ ability to be boring and predictable. But there’s good reason to believe the “inevitable” candidate this time around is far from inevitable.
First, almost all of the previous “inevitable” establishment candidates won before the Tea Party reshaped the GOP. K Street and party leadership used to hold fundraising monopolies. That’s no longer true. Super PACs, internet fundraising and other developments have decentralized fundraising and thus neutered the party establishment.
Jeb also faces a much tougher challenge than his predecessors did. Marco Rubio isn’t a divisive figure like Rick Santorum was in 2012. He’s got more conservative street-cred than Romney did in 2008 or McCain did in 2000, and he’s a better politician than Huckabee was in 2008. And unlike Pat Buchanan (who, by the way, won New Hampshire once), Rubio is an elected official with significant establishment backing.
Even Ted Cruz — two years junior to Rubio in Washington, and far more divisive — is a more serious contender than the anti-establishment candidates of years past.
Jeb Bush is right now a long shot. If he is to win, he needs to become inevitable. That’s quite a leap from where he is now.
Timothy P. Carney, the Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
