When President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House, the return of “maximum pressure” is likely. During Trump’s first term, as sanctions took their toll on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s economy and hard currency reserves, Tehran found an ally in Beijing. China continued trading with Tehran and helped it circumvent U.S. sanctions. However, Beijing’s support was opportunistic rather than altruistic. It leveraged its assistance to Tehran to help China tighten control over critical sectors of Iran’s economy, including the automotive industry. Now, as Trump returns, his administration should target precisely those industries, such as auto manufacturing, where China built up control.

Iran’s automotive sector is one of the country’s most important industries. Nearly a million Iranians work across manufacturing, parts production, and related services. At its peak in 2011, the industry produced almost 1.6 million vehicles annually. However, sanctions enforcement reduced production due to Iran’s reliance on foreign parts and technology. By 2013, production had dropped by more than half from its high just two years previously. Production rebounded to 1.5 million vehicles in 2017 but again halved as Trump ratcheted up sanctions. The Biden administration’s more relaxed enforcement of sanctions led to another rebound. Iranian car manufacturers produced over 1.3 million vehicles in 2023.