California Republicans may not be on the verge of a red wave any time soon, but the steady drip of gains shows the state is on the verge of becoming more competitive than anyone could guess. Competence (or the state Democratic Party’s incompetence) could be the key.

The 2024 elections saw President-elect Donald Trump flip several counties and cut his deficit from 29 points against President Joe Biden in 2020 to 20 points against Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris was the first Californian to be a major party presidential nominee since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984, and yet she performed the worst of any Democratic presidential candidate since John Kerry in 2004. Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to win Riverside County (4th-largest county by population), San Bernardino County (5th-largest), and Fresno County (10th-largest) since 2004.