Xi Jinping, the President of China, announced his decision to seek a third term in office means a decade more of Chinese challenges to U.S.-led international order. The decision, likely to be approved by parliamentarians, will stamp Xi’s authority on the present and future of China.
Why is this news relevant to you?
For two reasons.
First off, Xi is determined to dramatically reshape international order to serve Chinese economic and military interests.
This effort includes building a vast trade route across Asia into Europe and the Middle East to give Xi the ability to enrich nations sympathetic to China, and thus influence their foreign policy decisions.
It’s working. Close U.S. allies like Britain continue to align themselves more closely with Xi’s regime.
But that’s just the start. Xi’s continued power also means his ongoing effort to replace the U.S.-led international order built on democracy and free trade with a Chinese order built on Chinese hegemony and patronage.
While Xi’s preference is to disrupt U.S. order but maintain growing U.S. trade links, he also seems amenable to using force to effect his will. We see this in Xi’s construction of missile platforms and airfields on newly constructed islands in the South China Sea. The effort reflects Xi’s desire to give China a veto over the free movement of ships and aircraft throughout the region. To understand the importance of this effort, consider the map below.
The red bubbles I’ve added indicate the rough outline of where China intends to use its islands to dominate the region. And with vast amounts of global trade moving through those waters each year, these islands give China leverage investments with which to extract political and economic concessions from its neighbors.
Ultimately, the U.S. must be clever if it’s to preserve its interests in face of Xi’s efforts. Doing so will require practiced strength in refusing to accept Chinese claims over the South China Sea and U.S. pushback against Xi’s intellectual property theft. But it will also require a broader U.S. effort to woo otherwise pro-American states like Vietnam and the Philippines with new trade deals that serve their interests as well as those of Americans (buying cheap goods from these nations, U.S. families save money).
Most importantly, the U.S. will have to strengthen its alliances with states like India and Australia.
If those nations work alongside U.S. efforts to resist Xi, the Chinese leader will be far more inclined to seek a compromise that bears closeness to the existing balance of power.
