Addressing Congress on Tuesday, President Emmanuel Macron of France lauded the Paris climate accord which President Trump withdrew from last year.
“I’m sure, one day, the United States will come back and join the Paris agreement,” Macron said, continuing, “And I’m sure we can work together to fulfill with you the ambitions of the global compact on the environment.” Macron concluded, “Let us face it: There is no Planet B.”
I suspect Macron will succeed in persuading Trump to rejoin a modified deal.
First, the French president is willing to invest huge political capital on this ambition. He knows that successfully persuading Trump to rejoin the agreement would be a defining political victory. But his motivation isn’t simply a narrow political one. Macron also ardently believes the Paris accord is crucial to resolving what he sees as the global climate crisis. And without the U.S. as a partner to the agreement, its efficacy is greatly reduced.
Trump, of course, sees things differently. The president rightly views the current accord as deceptive in nature, destructive to the U.S. economy, feasibly detrimental to U.S. consumers, and overly deferential to China.
Yet, as with his evolving approach to the Trans Pacific Partnership trade agreement, Trump has said he would reconsider joining the Paris accord. Speaking to Piers Morgan in January, Trump outlined his perspective.
“As usual, [the original Paris accord signatories] took advantage of the U.S. We were in a terrible deal.” But Trump added a caveat: “Would I go back in? Yeah, I’d go back in. I like, as you know, I like Emmanuel [Macron]. I would love to, but it’s got to be a good deal for the U.S.”
Note here the specific focus on Macron. On the back of his bromance-visit with Trump, Macron is likely in a stronger position to push Trump towards rejoining the deal. The operative question?
What would Trump need to get there?
Two things, I suspect. First, a deal that was amended to provide a greater window for U.S. reductions in carbon emissions away from the current 2025 deadline for a 26-28 percent reduction on 2005 emissions. Perhaps Trump would agree to a 2030 time frame, similar to China’s pledge.
China speaks to the second issue. This being that Trump would likely only agree to a U.S. recommitment if the Chinese and Indian governments agreed to similar commitments rather than their presently nonbinding pledges to attempt to reduce their emissions.
Still, I suspect Macron will eventually get Trump back into the Paris accord. He knows the way to Trump’s heart and mind, and Trump sees the accord through the prism as a “good” or “bad” deal rather than through some a position of deep skepticism about carbon emissions impact on climate change.
