With the Middle East, nothing is ever quite what it looks like. There are always side deals and cover stories, fake stances and false trails. The hostage deal between Israel and Hamas is not a “ceasefire” deal. The English language doesn’t have a word for what it is. It defies our definition because it defies the mentalities of Western war and diplomacy. The Islamists, however, do have a word for it, because it defines how they fight and, having been used by Mohammed in his campaigns, it is, like Britain’s Labour Party, sharia-compliant.

Like the hostage deal of November 2023, this is a hudna: a temporary tactical pause by mutual agreement. Its first phase is meant to last six weeks. Negotiations for the second phase are meant to start once the first phase reaches the 16-day mark. Inauguration Day falls a day after the pause begins. Hamas literally blew up the November 2023 hudna by launching rockets instead of negotiating the next phase. It is entirely possible that the first phase will not last the full 42 days. It is remotely possible that the second phase could begin. The third phase will never happen. Or rather, if it does happen, it won’t be what the third phase currently looks like.