Americans should welcome Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s pledge to support the Sunni Arab kingdoms against regional instability. His pledge will help deter Iran from violent escalation.
And el-Sisi’s pledge was certainly unambiguous: “We stand by our brothers in the Gulf wholeheartedly, and if Gulf security is directly threatened by anyone, the Egyptian people, even before their leadership, will not accept that and will mobilize forces to protect their brethren.”
The specificity of that pledge to deploy military forces in defense of the Gulf kingdoms — states such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — is notable for two reasons. First, while the Egyptians are deeply skeptical of the Iranians, they have been hesitant to join Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s more overtly confrontational stance toward Iran. That Sisi is now jumping in with both feet is a warning shot across Iran’s bow. But it’s also a calibrated warning shot that will carry constructive influence over the problematically impulsive bin Salman. Sisi, a career army officer turned dictator, has both the political and military credibility to influence Riyadh’s calculations. And leading Egypt’s regionally leading armed forces, Sisi has tools with which to earn bin Salman’s ear. This matters for America. While the U.S. needs a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia, we should also welcome any positive influence that keeps bin Salman’s worse impulses — such as his recent decision to assassinate Saudi dissident, Jamal Khashoggi — in check.
Sisi’s words have positive benefits for another reason because they suggest that Sisi is unwilling to follow Russia’s geopolitical interest in promoting Iranian empowerment. In recent years Russian President Vladimir Putin has engendered increasingly close relations with Sisi so as to displace U.S. leadership in the Middle East and strengthen Russian mercantilist interests. But with Trump now promoting stronger U.S.-Egyptian relations, it seems that Putin’s influence is diminishing. Again, in terms of broader regional stability, that is a good thing.
Ultimately, the Middle East is in a situation of great political flux. But Egypt has real power and influence, and in Sisi’s words, we can have hope that it will be employed more constructively.
