The United States cannot deter or defeat China in a war over Taiwan if U.S. naval and air forces are spread thinly across Europe, the Middle East, and China. The U.S. can deter Russia by maintaining Army deployments in Eastern Europe and nuclear strike preeminence. The U.S. can deter Iran by responding to acts of Iranian terrorism with decisive force. The U.S. cannot deter China unless an abundant Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps presence is fixed in the Pacific and in healthy readiness to deploy to the Pacific at short notice.

These sentiments broadly align with Elbridge Colby’s philosophy on the future of U.S. military posturing. And Colby bears note amid the apparent Senate Republican hold on his confirmation as undersecretary of defense for policy. As I’ve argued previously, Colby is an extremely strong choice for this most important Defense Department role. He has been proven correct on the inability of the U.S. to deploy maximal military force in all scenarios.