There’s no way around it. Donald Trump is going to go two-for-two in the early primaries, according to the South Carolina polls.
The Headline Numbers
Since Trump won the New Hampshire primary, seven pollsters have surveyed South Carolina Republicans (Gravis, ARG, PPP, the state’s Republican state legislative caucus, CBS, CNN and the Augusta Chronicle). All seven have showed Trump leading, by 14-22 points.
This lead is way outside any margin of error and well beyond the reach of any ground-game advantage. Trump will win South Carolina unless he somehow collapses in the final days. Given his campaign thus far, it’s hard to imagine what could cause him to collapse.
Ted Cruz is second or tied for second in six of those seven polls. His RealClearPolitics average (which covers only the four latest polls) is 17.5 percent, which is enough for second place, and is exactly half of Trump’s support. Cruz certainly isn’t safe in second place. Rubio and Bush are right behind him in the average, both leading him in some surveys. Even John Kasich leads Cruz in two post-N.H. polls of South Carolina.
Most of the polls show a close silver-medal contest between Rubio and Cruz. Only the South Carolina House GOP surveys (automated surveys) show Bush competing hard for second place. Only ARG (the most accurate in New Hampshire, but also the smallest sample size in S.C.0 shows Kasich in the running for second. Every post-N.H. polls show Ben Carson in last place or tied for last place.
Undercurrents
- In CNN’s poll, half of voters were flexible or still deciding.
- ARG showed no movements of more than two points for any candidate from before the Feb. 13 debate to after it.
- Rubio’s favorables are 58 percent according to PPP, compared to Cruz’s 42 percent and Bush’s 41 percent. That could carry Rubio to the second-place finish he badly needs.
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
