Many of Donald Trump’s supporters labor under the impression that he is not only electable, but is the most electable candidate in the Republican field. If you find yourself believing this, we’d like to show you what the polls, which take up most of Trump’s campaign rhetoric, actually have to say on the matter.
It’s true, as his defenders say, that one cannot rely on head-to-head polling so far from an election. But big turnarounds in polling typically result from a little-known candidate gathering momentum and acquiring a public image. The unknown who once trailed by a large margin closes the gap by becoming a household name and finding a message that resonates with the voters sympathetic enough to vote for his party.
This is where the improbability of a Trump victory becomes plain. He is a unique candidate because he has already defined himself in the minds of nearly all voters. They already have strong opinions about him, love him or hate him.
This means that each time you see Trump trailing in a poll (he has not led in any since early February), the gap you see will require millions of minds to change from despising him to supporting him. It will not be enough for him to do what most underdog candidates do, make the electorate more aware of who he is and what he is about, because they already know.
So what do the polls say about Trump’s image? Here’s a sample.
In a recent Monmouth poll, 68 percent of voters said Trump “does not have the right temperament to be president.” That includes 48 percent of Republicans, 64 percent of independent voters, 64 percent of white voters, and an eye-popping 76 percent of women. This obstacle to a Trump victory in November is pretty much insurmountable all on its own. Trump’s strategy of giving offense and doubling down has helped him win 37 percent of the GOP primary vote so far, but this is a small fraction of the general electorate.
With Trump launching his unprovoked attack on Ted Cruz’s wife (even attacking her looks) this week, it is also worth noting that the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows that 47 percent of Republican women would not vote for Trump, were he their party’s nominee.
Trump’s negative rating, at 57 percent, is the highest on record for any candidate at this point in the election cycle as measured by CBS/New York Times polls since they started asking the question in 1984. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, his negative rating is 61 percent. In the latest FOX News poll, his negative rating is 65 percent, a record. In the latest Bloomberg poll, Trump is viewed unfavorably by 68 percent.
If Republicans are trying to find a candidate with unfavorables even higher than Hillary Clinton’s, Trump is their man. She is disliked, goodness knows deservedly, but he is radioactive. He has consistently ranged between unpopularity in the high 50s and the high 60s, which is unheard of for a presidential nominee. What’s more, he has near 100 percent name recognition, meaning there is little chance people will change their minds as they learn more about him.
Finally, it is worth noting that as a nominee, Trump will need to devote significant resources not just to winning swing states, but to holding down deep Red ones. It should come as a huge warning sign that a Deseret News poll from this week shows Trump losing Utah by a very wide margin to Bernie Sanders, and also narrowly to Hillary Clinton.
Mitt Romney won Utah with 73 percent. Non-Mormon George W. Bush won it in 2004 with 72 percent. Trump polls at an astoundingly low 36 percent, where both Ted Cruz and John Kasich win easily.
Electability is certainly not the only consideration in choosing a candidate. But if electability is your concern, the data all point to the conclusion that Trump is not your guy. And if he is your guy, the electability argument is not on your side.
