Many of Donald Trump’s supporters labor under the impression that he is not only electable, but is the most electable candidate in the Republican field. If you find yourself believing this, we’d like to show you what the polls, which take up most of Trump’s campaign rhetoric, actually have to say on the matter.

It’s true, as his defenders say, that one cannot rely on head-to-head polling so far from an election. But big turnarounds in polling typically result from a little-known candidate gathering momentum and acquiring a public image. The unknown who once trailed by a large margin closes the gap by becoming a household name and finding a message that resonates with the voters sympathetic enough to vote for his party.