We’ve seen this movie several times before during the first two acts of the Trump presidency: President Trump says or does something the majority of Washington condemns, Republican lawmakers mutter in private about how reckless the president can be, and reporters begin pontificating about whether the alliance between Trump and his Republican colleagues on Capitol Hill is finally falling apart.
This has been one of the themes of the last few weeks, after Republicans who are normally quick to defend Trump made their displeasure about troop pullouts from Syria and Afghanistan loud and clear. The situation advanced when Defense Secretary Jim Mattis announced he would retire in February, followed by Trump deciding Dec. 31 would be his last day instead.
“Trump sees dangerous cracks in Hill GOP support,” read a headline in Politico. “Trump Policy Gyrations Threaten Fragile Republican Coalition,” blared the New York Times. One anonymous GOP aide likened Trump to an island with big waves crashing down and taking some of the beach along with it. “How much land is going to be left when the Mueller tidal wave hits?” the aide asked.
Are House and Senate Republicans getting ready to jump off the wobbly Trump Train? While the road is about as rocky as it’s been in the last two years, the answer is the same: probably not. “Never Trumpers” considering a potential 2020 GOP primary challenge such as Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona can stop biting their fingernails in nervous anticipation of a miracle.
For one, Trump remains incredibly popular among registered Republican voters, the very people who can make or break a GOP politician and cut short their careers. A Dec. 12-17 poll from Quinnipiac finds that 81 percent of GOP voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, a number that boggles the mind of “Never Trumpers’ in Washington but is nevertheless consistent with polls since Trump has been in the White House.
As long as Republican voters don’t break with the president, the incentive for Republican senators and members of Congress to do so is slim. It’s no wonder that former Sens. Bob Corker of Tennessee and Flake, the two most prominent GOP politicians who take Trump on in public, decided to retire.
Second, while Republicans are up in arms about the chaos Trump is leaving in his wake, chaos is nothing new. Nor are disagreements between Trump and the Republican Party all that new. From global trade and NATO to Syria and political etiquette, Trump and the GOP have often been on different sides of the street. None of this has convinced people such as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida to tuck tail and run in order to save themselves. A few public statements of condemnation may be released, but in the end these politicians come back to Trump.
Finally, with Democrats set to control the House and impeachment proceedings a very real possibility, the relationship between Trump and the Republican Party is likely to get tighter, not more tenuous. Political parties tend to close ranks during political crises, and there will be no shortage of them next year when the subpoenas start flying and when special counsel Robert Mueller issues his final report about possible Russian collusion and obstruction of justice. Just like Democrats swallowed their disgust about former President Bill Clinton’s personal defects to protect him from a conviction in the Senate, Republican senators are likely to do the same thing if and when the Democratic House impeaches Trump.
Forget about the alarmist headlines. Trump has plowed through bigger obstacles before. He will probably do it again.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
