CBO says refusing to reform Social Security means a 24% benefit cut in 9 years

Published March 27, 2025 4:49pm ET



As recently as last year, Social Security trustees bragged that Social Security wouldn’t reach insolvency until 2034 and that the following year, benefits would only have to be cut by 17%. In its dire and devastating long-term budget outlook for the next 30 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office put that lie to bed. In reality, the CBO said, Social Security is slated to reach insolvency by 2033 with a subsequent benefit cut of 24%.

This 24% benefit cut in nine years is the preferred policy of Washington, D.C.,’s bipartisan consensus that we must “protect” Social Security from any and all reform. This is the stated position of the Trump administration, even considering that a three-year increase to the retirement age is “disgusting,” as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said during an interview on the All In podcast. (Recall that the retirement age has remained constant in the near century the program has existed, while average American life expectancy has risen by 23%.)

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