Determined to undermine the Trump administration’s military bolstering of Taiwan and the Philippines, China is emphasizing its ability to compress Taiwan in the event of war and its belief that it can successfully do so even in a direct confrontation with the U.S. military.

Deployments close to Taiwan by the Chinese military are ratcheting up dramatically. In early April, the commander of U.S. military forces in the Pacific testified to Congress that China’s “aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan are not just exercises — they are dress rehearsals for forced unification. [China] escalated military pressure against Taiwan by 300% in 2024.” Adm. Sam Paparo added that a Taiwan war would likely mean a “25% reduction in GDP in Asia, an effect of 10% to 12% GDP reduction in [the United States], [and U.S.] unemployment spiking at 7% to 10%” above current rates.