When Jair Bolsonaro becomes president of Brazil on Jan. 1, 2019, he will prioritize increased regional pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s Venezuelan regime. Working with his Colombian counterpart, Ivan Duque Marquez, Bolsonaro will seek to isolate Maduro from the remaining economic, political, and security levers of power that sustain him.
We can be confident of this course of action for two reasons. First, because Bolsonaro is an ardent conservative who wants to make Brazil a continental political leader. Second, because Colombia faces a crisis in the more than one million Venezuelan refugees that have flooded across its border. Third, because in Duque Marquez, Bolsonaro finds a natural, albeit less bold, ally.
The roots of these concerns are abundant and apparent. Maduro has shown absolutely no indication of altering course to improve his nation’s economy. In turn, the Venezuelan refugee crisis in Colombia is now at unparalleled levels. The social and economic pressures this presents for the government in Bogota are significant. In recent months, Duque Marquez has escalated his efforts to persuade the United Nations to take a greater role in this humanitarian crisis. Colombia has even hinted that it might be forced to close the Venezuelan border. At the same time, Bolsonaro has pledged to Venezuelans that he prioritizes their improved situation. He has also asserted that Venezuela should be expelled from the regional trading and political bloc, Mercosur. More interestingly, Bolsonaro’s vice president-elect recently stated that Brazil would lead a peacekeeping force in Venezuela once Maduro was overthrown by domestic forces.
Still, regional military action against Venezuela is unlikely. As long as the Venezuelan military remains loyal to Maduro, it will pose a significant challenge to any regional actor or alliance. Nor is it presently in America’s interest to join any military operation.
The hope is that alongside the U.S., the European Union, and others, a Brazilian-Colombian effort to isolate Maduro might create space for a natural domestic movement to unseat him.
