The further Donald Trump falls behind Hillary Clinton, the more pundits, politicians and strategists say Republicans might lose their majority in the House of Representatives.
“Top Democratic strategists are moving to capitalize on the extraordinary events of the last several days, now believing they have a real shot of retaking the House majority after a slew of Republican lawmakers renounced their support of Donald Trump over his lewd comments captured on video,” a Washington Post article says.
“Two of the three top House Republicans hosted a conference call Wednesday to urge GOP lawmakers to pony up cash to endangered colleagues, as the party faces one of the most challenging political climates in recent memory, according to sources familiar with the call,” a Politico article says.
“Donald Trump’s tumbling poll numbers have given Democrats their strongest tailwinds in a decade, heightening expectations for significant gains in the House, though likely not enough in the eyes of most analysts to shift control of the chamber,” the Wall Street Journal says.
Democrats do lead the generic congressional ballot by about 4.5 percentage points.
Could the Democrats really take back control of the House? It’s possible, but a long-shot.
As the Wall Street Journal said, the most common expectation among analysts is that Democrats will win some seats but not enough to make control of the House truly close.
According to Betfair and PredictIt, bettors are putting their money on the GOP maintaining control. They give the GOP an 80 percent chance of keeping the House.
PredictWise, built on betting odds, polling and fundamentals, has more specific odds for how big the GOP majority might be. There’s a 77 percent chance the GOP will have between 218 and 240 seats (218 being required for a majority). It’s about equally as likely the GOP will end up between 218 and 230 seats versus 231 to 240 seats. They give Democrats a 17 percent chance of taking the majority, while the GOP has a 2 percent chance of expanding its majority beyond 250 seats.
According to the Cook Political Report, there are 227 seats that Republicans are “likely” to hold. The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report says 215 GOP seats are safe, with 10 more leaning or likely GOP seats. Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” says Democrats are likely to gain 10-15 seats, which would still put the GOP at more than 230 seats.
Keep in mind, it’s normal for members of either party to cast their electoral fates in dire terms as a ploy to boost fundraising. There’s nothing that gets a party’s base to open their wallets like a fundraising email that says “Friend, I couldn’t sleep last night because I’m so worried about the [other party] beating us on Election Day. It could really happen.”
Between the presidential election, the battle for the Senate, important ballot questions and even a few governors races, there’s already a lot to keep track of on Election Day. Worrying about control of the House of Representatives (probably) doesn’t need to be added to the list.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
