Reports that the Navy is re-evaluating its 355-ship goal in the wake of the new national security strategy are a good sign. That said, those who are thinking the number should be lower are all wet. Ideally, the Navy will revise that number significantly upward.
The U.S. Navy, at present, is arguably the most powerful navy in the world. Its 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers can operate four squadrons of multirole fighters and assorted support aircraft. Its major surface combatants, the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruisers and the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers, are arguably among the best in the world, and there’s a lot of them. Nuclear-powered attack submarines, like the Virginia, Los Angeles, and Seawolf classes pretty much rule under the sea.
There’s just one big problem. As impressive as these ships and submarines are, there is one capability they don’t have, and won’t have, barring some breakthrough from the realms of science fiction: the ability to be two places at once. The Navy has 288 ships in service of all types. Thirty years ago, according to the Naval Historical Center, the Navy had 592 vessels, more than twice the current number, with a force of 15 aircraft carriers, plus one more for training. In 1999, 10 years later, that number dwindled to 336 and 12 carriers, largely due to the “peace dividend.” By 2009, the Navy was down to 285 ships. Under former President Barack Obama, the force stagnated at that level, and at times dropped to as few as 10 carriers.
Some of the ships decommissioned during the “peace dividend,” aging guided-missile destroyers of the Charles F. Adams and Farragut classes, as well as the Leahy and Belknap classes of guided-missile cruisers, were due for replacement. That was a total of 51 ships, and the planned 62 Arleigh Burke-class ships would have replaced them with a decent margin of error.
The problem was, the Navy retired another 40 ships — the Spruance-class destroyers, the Kidd-class guided-missile destroyers, nine nuclear-powered guided-missile cruisers, and five Ticonderoga-class cruisers — and also wanted the Burkes to replace them. Then 21 of the Oliver Hazard Perry-class guided-missile frigates were retired, along with the 46 Knox-class frigates. Those 67 vessels were not immediately replaced. That meant the Burkes had to replace 167 ships as opposed to 51. Production of the Burke-class has re-started, but with 62 Burkes currently in service, the difficulties are apparent. Resuming production of the Zumwalt-class destroyers to the 32 ships originally planned would help.
The submarine force has also seen its numbers decline. The “peace dividend” saw the warranted retirement of the aging Permit and Sturgeon classes of nuclear attack submarines, but the Seawolf-class, intended to replace the older subs, was halted at three vessels. Worse, the early Los Angeles-class attack submarines were retired instead of being refueled. The force is now roughly half of what it was in 1989. Again, the Virginia-class submarines are incredibly advanced, but they do not have the ability to be in two places at once.
The decline has been bipartisan. While former President Bill Clinton and Obama did a lot of slashing, former President George W. Bush did precious little to reverse the decline. In some ways, it was understandable, given that we were fighting the global War on Terror. While his administration did develop the littoral combat ship, both classes were badly underarmed. He also missed the opportunity to license production of Spain’s Alvaro de Bazan-class guided missile frigates to start replacing the Perry-class vessels.
There is hope, though: The Navy’s FFG(X) program does offer one chance to start addressing the shortfall. The Bazan design is one of five competing for the contract, so are variants of both classes of littoral combat ship. In addition, a version of the Coast Guard’s National Security Cutter is also in the mix. Buying all four of these designs would help alleviate the shortfall of hulls in the water.
The Navy has suffered decades of cuts, leading to a dwindling force structure. That can be reversed, but ships take a long time to build. The Navy can get out of the present hole, but the work must start now.
Harold Hutchison has 15 years of experience covering military issues for multiple outlets.
