Russian President Vladimir Putin is relaxing the lockdowns, but the coronavirus situation in Russia is getting worse. The latest figures show the number of infections is jumping by more than 10,000 per day.
And that’s just what the official records say. The true extent of infections and deaths is likely much higher than presented. Russia faces particular challenges with the mortality factor here. Its healthcare system is at best creaking and at worst decrepit. Another complication is the relative ill health of many older Russians due to high alcoholism and smoking rates.
But if things are getting worse, why is Putin relaxing the lockdown, even in the hardest-hit area of the province of Moscow?
It’s the political economy, stupid.
Although Russia has foreign capital reserves with which it could significantly increase support for Russian businesses and at-need workers, Putin is reluctant to do so for two reasons. First, that is because that greater expenditure would drain his treasure chest for long-term military spending and infrastructure projects. Second, the Russian leader likely fears it would make him appear weak and deferential to the struggles of the people.
That second point might seem odd, but it deserves particular attention. There is a long tradition in Russian politics reaching back to Catherine the Great’s son and successor, Paul I, of leaders showing deliberate disregard for their citizens. In simple terms, this impulse centers on encouraging the elites to know who is boss. If elites know that their leader is willing to tolerate significant public suffering, he will surely have no qualms about hurting a few bigwigs. The conclusion being: Stay loyal to the boss, or suffer the consequences.
That understanding formed the foundation of Putin’s strategy at the start of this crisis. The Russian leader provided lockdown waivers only for interests linked to top oligarchs, such as the major construction industry. As the excellent Viral Kremlinology team noted last week, this calculation was designed to consolidate at least some of the elites’ financial interests amid the growing crisis.
So, what’s changed?
Well, in refusing to provide greater compensation to small- and medium-sized businesses that have been forced to shutter, and seeing the specter of a prolonged shutdown, Putin has blinked. This week’s relaxations reflect his new calculation that the political costs of sustaining this shutdown outweigh its health-related benefits.
Russia’s middle class is growing increasingly desperate economically, complaining that the compensation schemes in operation are grossly insufficient and crippled by cronyism and bureaucratic lethargy. And Kremlin critics such as Alexei Navalny are documenting the dichotomy between this suffering and the insulation of the oligarch elite. This puts Putin in the position of being seen not as the father of the motherland, but rather as a leader out of his depth.
This is something the Russian president cannot abide by. It cuts to the very heart of Putin’s power narrative as Russia’s supreme and infallible master. In turn, Putin is effectively now choosing to have the infections and death rates rise in return for improved economic activity. As he always does, Putin will blame lower-ranking officials for the negative dividends of his choices.
Still, this is no great solution. It might buy a couple of weeks of improved standing for Putin. But as more Russians become ill — his own spokesman Dmitry “The Watch” Peskov has been hospitalized — Putin will be forced to choose between returning to a lockdown or walking a brutal national gauntlet to reach herd immunity. If he fluctuates between the two, which he’ll likely have to do, Putin will appear increasingly weak.
These are tough times for the world, but it is perhaps the toughest of times for Putin.
