There is liability in numbers and opportunity for Hillary Clinton to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination a second time.
The failed candidate has been coy when asked whether she would resurrect her political career. But who loves a crowded presidential primary? Clinton. Winning a primary doesn’t require a clear majority. A candidate only needs a plurality.
So when the co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, Rep. David Cicilline of Rhode Island, predicts “between 30 and 40 great candidates running for president,” it is music to Clinton’s ambitious ears.
More candidates means more choice, to be sure. It also means less consensus and a lower barrier for entry to the Democratic National Convention.
All Clinton needs to do is play the field like Donald Trump. Of course, she would have to do some other some small things like win over the base, unite a fractured party, raise hundreds of millions of dollars, come up with a compelling message for once, and learn how to actually campaign in states like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. But other than that little laundry list, Clinton could follow the Trump playbook and win in 2020.
Trump likes to brag that he won the most Republican primary votes in history. And he did. But he didn’t win a majority.
Take a look at number of votes won: Trump brought in 13.4 million primary votes more than former President George W. Bush in 2000 (12.1 million), Sen. John McCain of Arizona in 2008 (9.6 million), and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012 (10 million).
Now consider the share of the primary popular vote: Bush and Romney won majorities, 61 and 52 percent. McCain got 47 percent. Trump finished with 44 percent.
So what happened? Seventeen candidates divided the electorate, and that’s how a real-estate mogul with no political experience conquered. Ohio Gov. John Kasich carried his state. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush took up space on the debate stage. Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz tore at each others’ throats. Trump stayed standing.
None of this should discount what Trump accomplished. He humiliated the political establishment because he understood and exploited the seething populism they couldn’t see. He also took advantage of a crowded contest. Looking to 2020, then, this should serve as a warning to Democrats.
The longer excess candidates stick around, the less votes are needed to win the nomination and the more likely it is for a Clinton comeback.
Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. I mean, come on, Trump is president.
