Beirut explosions: What we know so far

The head of Lebanon’s domestic security service has ridiculed the notion that fireworks were involved. He told reporters that the incident is a result of highly explosive materials being stored in a port warehouse. Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim refused to give further comment pending the outcome of the investigation. It should be noted here that while Ibrahim has good links to Western intelligence and counterterrorism units, his central interest rests in maintaining Lebanese political stability in avoidance of another civil war. This is a hyper-relevant concern in the context of very significant political tensions over Lebanon’s growing economic crisis and an associated increase of pressure on the Lebanese Hezbollah. Identifying the explosives as the cause, while saying they had been stored over a period of time, allows Ibrahim to put Hezbollah on notice without directly confronting the group. But why those explosives would be stored in a highly traveled population center and not on a military base is unclear.

Still, considering the popping/cooking off of what appeared to be bullets (but which could be electrical sparks) between the first and second explosion, it seems eminently possible that explosives were being stored with other ammunition supplies (see video below). Considering its significant militia footprint in Beirut, and its close links to Syria’s Bashar Assad and Iran, it’s possible the source of the explosion was a Hezbollah munitions depot resupplied via Syria. Interestingly, Hezbollah appears to be trying to muddy the waters. As of publication, its Al Manar news agency continues to assert that the explosion was the result of a fireworks factory fire spreading and then detonating nitrate tanks (it should be noted that ammonium nitrate is an explosive precursor material).

Others suggest that Israeli forces might be responsible for the explosions. That’s highly unlikely. The Lebanese military has ruled out airstrikes, and Israel would be extraordinarily unlikely to launch an attack outside of darkness. The Israeli military and intelligence services would be highly reluctant to target a munitions factory in the center of Beirut, fearing civilian casualties. They would also rightly assess that an attack such as this would strengthen rather than weaken Hezbollah.

Ultimately, we’ll just have to wait and see.