Secretary of Defense Mark Esper sent a clear message to China on Tuesday when he deployed three B-2 bombers from the 509th Bomb Wing to Diego Garcia.
An island in the Indian Ocean 1,000 miles south of India, Diego Garcia hosts a British military base. But that base primarily serves as a logistics and strike hub for the U.S. military. In 2003, the Air Force upgraded Diego Garcia’s facilities to provide shelter requirements specific to the B-2. The first point to note is that of geography.
The island’s advantage to the U.S. Air Force is its ability to reduce the B-2 flight time to the South China Sea. When at their home at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, B-2s flying at top speed would take at least 12 hours to reach the South China Sea. But from Diego Garcia, the flight time is reduced to just five hours. I emphasize the South China Sea because that locale is increasingly likely to feature a conflict between the United States and China.
Tensions on, above, and below that sea are soaring as the Trump administration energizes its rejection of Chinese ownership claims over these vital trade waters. By the Air Force’s public announcement and the B-2’s operational character, it’s clear that China is the intended recipient of this message. Similar was last year’s deployment of 509th Wing B-2s to Hawaii, an eight-hour flight to the South China Sea.
That said, this is about messaging, not imminent war. Only three B-2s have been flown to Diego Garcia out of the wing’s total complement of at least 12 aircraft. Were war imminent, we would not have been told about the B-2s Indian Ocean adventure, and a larger number of B-2s would have been deployed.
So what’s really going on?
Well, at the tactical level, it’s about showing China that the U.S. is ready to strike People’s Liberation Army command and control centers on land. In the context of President Rodrigo Duterte’s recent decision to turn the Philippines navy into a China-friendly beach patrol, the U.S. wants Xi Jinping to know that it can fight a South China Sea conflict even without local bases. At the strategic level, it’s about showing China that the U.S. has all three (ground, submarine, and bomber) elements of its nuclear triad pre-positioned and ready to go. Fortunately, considering that a nuclear war with China remains remote (and that the U.S. retains clear operational supremacy in this domain), this B-2 movement is predominantly centered on the tactical concern.
The key point: The Pentagon wants to push Xi, the Standing Committee, and the People’s Liberation Army off balance. Designed to penetrate layered air defense networks and deep into an enemy’s strongholds, the B-2’s wartime mission would be to use weapons such as the massive ordnance penetrators to destroy hardened Chinese command and control networks across its artificially created South China Sea islands. China knows this. But the B-2 takes on added importance in the face of potent Chinese ballistic missile threats to U.S. Navy carrier strike groups.
The threat doesn’t end there. The Pentagon knows Beijing will also see these B-2s as a threat to its mainland military command. Specifically, to the PLA’s Southern Theater Command, headquartered just outside Hong Kong in Guangzhou city. Considering that China would view strikes on its mainland very sensitively, and as justification for reciprocal action against the U.S. mainland, and that Xi is paranoid, the Pentagon’s messaging here is obviously designed to rattle Beijing.
