NATO’s founding principle was to prevent any power from conquering sovereign states and dominating Europe. Although NATO was not mandated to defend nonmembers, Russia’s war of conquest in Ukraine has exposed Moscow as an expansionist power that must be vanquished if a free Europe is to survive.
Four months into the war, Western leaders are still incapable of articulating a compelling message as to why Russia’s defeat is critical for all NATO countries. As the war grinds on into the summer, the absence of convincing explanations will encourage some politicians to question the rationale for helping Ukraine and thus allow Russia’s disinformation to seep into Western societies. But there are three core reasons Russia must lose this war: freedom, independence, and global security. Any peace deals and compromises in which Ukraine surrenders parts of its sovereignty or territory will be a defeat for Europe and America.
First, as an aggressive power that spreads its autocratic system to other countries, Russia presents the most direct threat to individual freedoms. Confusing statements from U.S. officials about defending the “global liberal order” undermine much-needed political consensus, as in the U.S., “liberal” and “order” are widely interpreted as partisan positions. The stress must be on NATO guaranteeing individual liberties and democratic political options, which Russia systematically violates. In sum, a Ukrainian defeat would constitute a defeat for the basic principles of liberty and seriously damage America’s global influence.
Second, imperial Russia threatens the national independence of all neighbors. It does not respect international borders, discards treaties, and seeks to limit the sovereignty of nearby states. America is founded not only on the pursuit of individual liberty but also on the principle of national independence celebrated every July Fourth. The denial of this principle to any American ally and partner, including Ukraine, will erode the core values of the Western world.
Third, Russia’s triumph in Ukraine will jeopardize global security. The Kremlin would conclude that aggression is beneficial, that the West is weak and divided, and that America lacks stamina. If international sanctions are lifted, a victorious Moscow would rearm and then launch fresh attacks on countries that it covets. This would prove even more financially costly for Washington and could bring Russia closer to an outright conflict with NATO. In sum, a Ukrainian victory can prevent a direct war between the U.S. and Russia.
Russia’s victory may also convince China that an attack on Taiwan would be tolerated, as Washington is desperate to avoid a larger war, and that nuclear threats can cower Western leaders into submission. North Korea and Iran will view the acquisition of nuclear weapons as essential to blackmail Western governments. Growing international instability will also have a much more damaging impact on the U.S. economy and living standards than we are currently witnessing.
The U.S. must not waver in providing essential military assistance to Ukraine while strengthening NATO’s capabilities. A bipartisan consensus in Congress recognizes the dangers to international security if Russia wins the war. Its 2023 draft defense policy bills reinforce White House commitments to increase the U.S. military presence in Poland and other NATO states. Nonetheless, without a clear and consistent message from the White House explaining what the current war means for America and every U.S. citizen, there is a danger that support for Ukraine will erode. That will encourage the Kremlin’s anti-Western offensive.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. He is the co-author of Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks with Margarita Assenova. His new book, Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture, will be published in July.
