When President Trump delivers his first State of the Union at the Capitol on Tuesday evening, expect some big foreign policy lines.
First, on North Korea, expect to hear something like:
“Our maximum pressure strategy is delivering results. Sanctions have put North Korea under increasing strain as it runs short of fuel supplies and is forced to cancel military exercises. Yet time for a diplomatic solution is running short. Our intelligence community believes Kim Jong Un will be able to launch a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile against the United States within the next year. So in the cause of peace, I call on China and Russia to significantly increase their pressure on North Korea to engage in serious diplomacy. But mark my words, I will not allow North Korea to threaten the United States with nuclear attack. Kim Jong Un must end his missile threat or the United States will end it for him.”
Why you should expect to hear it: The timeline to a capable North Korean ICBM+nuclear warhead threat is running very short. Correspondingly, Trump must do all he can to energize a Chinese and Russian crackdown on North Korea’s economy. This matters because neither nation is truly turning the screws on Kim and at present, Trump’s maximum pressure strategy is nothing of the sort.
At the same time, the State of the Union gives Trump a somber forum from which to imply he will use military force if no diplomatic solution can be reached. This is also crucial in that absent the prospect of U.S. military force being used against Kim, China is highly unlikely to introduce tougher sanctions on Kim’s regime.
Second, on Iran expect to hear something like:
“Iran’s leaders waste their nation’s wealth on terrorism and persecute their people with brutality. They export terrorism across the world and destabilize democracies across the Middle East. We recognize the courage and rich culture of the Iranian people, but we condemn those who oppress them.
And my administration will no longer support a nuclear agreement that pays those same leaders to do more of what they are already doing. As it stands, the nuclear agreement is a grant to the Ayatollah’s aggression. That must change.
In the coming weeks, we will redouble our efforts to persuade our European allies to strengthen the nuclear deal’s safeguards and ensure that Iran cannot continue with its development of ballistic missiles. But let me be clear, this agreement will be improved or it will no longer count the United States as a participant. At that point, any company which then chooses to do business in Iran will be blocked from doing business in this nation.”
Why you should expect to hear it: The timeline to a U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement is ticking down. If the U.S. is to get the deal-related improvements it needs, it must urgently persuade Britain, France, and Germany to get on board. Again, however, the only way that is going to happen is if those nations believe Trump truly will withdraw from the deal and sanction their multinationals dealing with Iran. Highlighting the moral plight of the Iranian people will also embarrass the Europeans into action here.
Finally, Trump also seems genuinely aggravated by Iran’s behavior in the Middle East: presumably via the intelligence briefings he receives from CIA Director Mike Pompeo.
Third, on Russia, expect to hear something like:
“I have consistently sought an improvement in our relationship with Russia. But while I believe that both our nations has far more to gain as partners than as foes, I am also committed to defending U.S. interests. To that end, we are working with NATO to deter aggression in Europe and to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. With regards to Syria, I have made clear to President Putin that the Assad regime must support a serious political transition.”
Why you should expect to hear it: Trump has recently become more skeptical on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s agenda and may want to highlight this evolution in his thought. Moreover, the Trump administration’s decision to supply Ukraine with anti-tank and advanced sniper rifles suggests Trump is actually tougher on Putin than former President Barack Obama (who refused to supply those weapons).
Then there’s the domestic context. As the Mueller investigation heats up, the White House might favor strong words on Russia to push back against accusations that the Russian government holds influence over the president.
Ultimately, of course, it’s always very hard to assess what President Trump is likely to say. And even assuming comments similar to the above are in Trump’s speech, he might change his mind a few minutes before taking to the rostrum! Still, the above is my best guess.
