I‘ll believe the rumors of an Al Gore 2016 presidential campaign when somebody can confidently report that Gore himself has been involved in the conversations, “soft” or otherwise. At most, it seems as if people with some level of connection to Gore have begun talking about the possibility to each other and the press.
But there’s more at play here than bored reporters trying to fill space during the August doldrums. There’s enough concern about Hillary Clinton that Democrats loyal to other party leaders, like Gore and Joe Biden, are beginning to fantasize more openly about their preferred candidates getting into the race. And there’s enough desire among other Democrats for an “in case of emergency, break glass” option that people are willing to listen.
The conversation has illustrated that the Democrats’ emergency options are not good. Barring a Gary Hart-like meltdown by Hillary, they are limited to retreads like Biden, Gore and John Kerry. Accomplished and respected retreads who retain popularity and influence in Democratic circles, but retreads nonetheless.
Elizabeth Warren could have been a contender, as they say in On the Waterfront, if she had gotten in early. But she probably can’t throw together a campaign quickly enough at this late date that could actually compete with even a hobbled Hillary. That’s why all the speculation centers around people like Biden and Gore. At this point, Warren would probably just split the votes available to Bernie Sanders.
That’s the Democrats’ other problem. The only non-Hillary candidate in the current Democratic field who has gained any traction whatsoever is Sanders, a self-described socialist who has tapped into some potent issues but probably doesn’t have the native political skills to sell them in a general election. He certainly doesn’t look like he can reassemble the diverse Obama coalition. The most November-ready Democrat already running is, in theory at least, Martin O’Malley. But O’Malley has attracted little support, essentially running alongside asterisk candidates Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee.
So unless the Democrats are prepared to ride into 2016 with a septuagenarian socialist who represents a 95 percent white state with three electoral votes, there’s nobody they can really turn to in their existing presidential field in case of emergency.
I keep emphasizing “in case of emergency” because I don’t think many Democrats outside of the Sanders left and friends of Biden or Gore are actively looking for a candidate other than Clinton. They are concerned enough about Clinton’s email server, lackluster swing state numbers, low ratings for trustworthiness even among Democrats and a surprisingly competitive New Hampshire primary to contemplate a Plan B, but not enough to implement one.
But that only illustrates another aspect of the Democrats’ dilemma: Hillary is still pretty strong despite her obvious liabilities and is likely to remain so absent the absolute worst case scenario concerning her emails. So any conceivable emergency option would not merely be a replacement like Hubert Humphrey stepping in for Lyndon Johnson, but would have to be ready to pry the nomination away from Hillary like a rifle from Charlton Heston’s “cold, dead hands.”
That’s essentially what Barack Obama did in 2008. We all remember Clinton’s collapse that year, but we tend to forget Obama got just 0.1 percent more of the vote than her nationally (estimates from caucuses can perhaps bump this up to as much 0.4) and lost most of the biggest states in the country. He had to take the nomination away from her and it wasn’t easy.
Again, that’s why we keep hearing about senior Democrats Gore and Biden. It’s not that the Democrats don’t have a bench, though that has surely been depleted by the 2010 and 2014 midterms. There just aren’t many potential Democratic candidates who can compete with the Clinton machine on even terms, especially with Obama on the sidelines or actively supporting Hillary. The prospect of trying has to be intimidating to any Democrat who has anything to lose.
My educated guess is that Biden would run if he saw a path to the nomination and was convinced he wouldn’t embarrass himself (you could point to his 2008 campaign as evidence neither of those things concern him, but he did parlay that run into a two-term vice presidency). He at least seems to be slightly involved in the speculation. Gore, not so much.
Gore’s old team probably feels as strongly that he was cheated out of the presidency in 2000 as the ex-veep himself. That, more than any real interest from Gore, is why we keep reading stories about “getting the band back together” every four years or so. They want to right the historical wrong that was done when the American people were denied Gore’s services as president.
Donald Trump’s candidacy is proof that past teases are no guarantee future performance, but the fact that Gore declined to run in either 2004 or 2008 despite similar buzz is the best indication we have of how eager he is to fight someone like Hillary.
Hillary Clinton is still a long way off from emergency condition. Which is a good thing, because there might not be any safety equipment waiting for the Democrats behind the glass.
