The national impact of a government shutdown over DACA negotiations may favor Democrats, assuming the party in power shoulders most of the blame for Congress’ failure to come to an agreement on spending legislation. But Democrats banking on the public generally faulting Republicans for a potential shutdown should consider that national polls won’t necessarily reflect the moods of voters in battleground midterm states.
In the case that vulnerable Democratic incumbents – think Sens. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., and Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. – are pressured into taking a vote to shut down the government over DACA protections getting left out of a spending bill, it won’t soon be forgotten by their opponents. The party’s apparent decision to pressure Trump Country Democrats into supporting a cause that will boost someone like Sen. Dianne Feinstein at their own expense is a gift to the GOP, which will use those votes to further the narrative that the McCaskills and Donnellys and Manchins of Congress are more in touch with the party’s radical base than their states’ constituents.
They will further that narrative in television advertisements and debates and mailings and more until November, when voters have to decide whether they want to support someone who takes their cues from progressives.
And the most vulnerable Senate Democrats seem to know that. Amid intense pressures from the grassroots, seven of the 10 senators running for re-election in states the president won voted last month to buck the base and support a stopgap bill that funded the government without including DACA protections.
Respondents in national polls may or may not immediately blame Republicans for this potential shutdown. But in regions where Republicans have the time and money to flesh out the narrative from now until Election Day, the blame game is happening in a much different context.
