President Trump has remade the Republican Party in his own image, but whether the party will survive in its current form, or get remade again once he leaves office, is the source of great debate.
American presidents traditionally dominate their own parties while in power, but their ability to shape the future of their party varies greatly. When Ronald Reagan sought the presidency in 1980, it was not as a Dwight D. Eisenhower or Richard Nixon Republican, but as a small government conservative. For decades after he left power, even after his death, Republicans would try to portray themselves as Reaganites.
In contrast, George W. Bush was for a time supremely popular among Republicans, achieving a remarkable 99% approval rating within his party in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks. But by 2008, GOP candidates were starting to distance themselves from him, and in 2016 Trump won the nomination by running a blistering campaign against much of the Bush legacy. You don’t hear many politicians describe themselves as “Bush Republicans” these days.
So, in which direction will the party go after Trump? Will future Republican candidates try to imitate his brash political style? Will they embrace his populist approach on trade and immigration? Or will they, as some have speculated, treat the Trump era as some sort of weird fever dream and run far, far, away from him?
A lot of this, of course, depends on his electoral performance. Getting reelected and having a successful second term would have significantly different implications for Trump’s legacy than losing in a landslide or eking out a victory and having a disastrous second term.
Additionally, even if potential successors want to follow Trump, it would be really difficult to replicate his appeal. His celebrity long predated his political career, and his bombastic style is unique. Additionally, unlike Reagan, who had a clear ideological legacy that could be applied across generations (low taxes, social conservatism, “peace through strength”), Trump’s views are an eclectic blend of various impulses. His appeal is heavily about attitude.
But let’s just say that Trump loses in a landslide in 2020, and the Republican powers that be are eager to leave him in the rearview mirror. One thing will guarantee that he remains a dominant voice in Republican politics and will make it much harder than usual for future Republican candidates to break away from him: his Twitter feed.
Trump was an active Twitter user before running for president, throughout his campaign, and during his presidency. He has used the forum to generate controversy and lambaste his critics. There is no reason to believe that will stop when he leaves office and every reason to believe that with more time on his hands and fewer constraints, he’ll feel even more freedom to let it rip to his tens of millions of followers. Trump is 73 years old — his mother lived until 88 and his father until 93. It’s quite possible that he could be tweeting for a very long time.
It’s easy to see how Trump’s Twitter feed can help ensure that his stamp remains on the party, especially given that no matter what happens next November, he’s likely to command a passionate core following among a subset of Republican voters.
Just imagine the following scenario: During a future Republican presidential primary battle, Trump fires off a series of controversial tweets on the news of the day. Democrats, and the media, line up to attack Trump for spreading hate. How do Republican candidates respond?
Republicans could side with Trump when asked, once again tying themselves to him. Alternatively, they could try to criticize him in an effort to create distance. But doing so would only alienate Trump voters — a segment of the party who any candidate would likely have to win over or at least mollify to capture a nomination. And the famously thin-skinned Trump would not hesitate to attack any Republican candidate who criticizes him as weak and a loser.
Republicans may try to dismiss the inevitable questions about Trump and his legacy from the media, but they will be inevitable. Trump has a knack for injecting himself into the conversation, and his running commentary will be hard to ignore.
Future Republican candidates may not covet Trump’s endorsement, but they certainly will fear his anti-endorsement. This will likely limit the extent to which they will be willing to distance themselves from Trump, and that could shape the direction of the party.
