Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is trying to boost his followers as they struggle to conquer the world.
The new push came on Thursday, in the form of an audio message released by an ISIS media arm. The rant deserves our attention for a few reasons.
First off, it suggests that al-Baghdadi is alive, or at least was alive, this summer. That’s relevant because al-Baghdadi has not released a message since his last audiotape was released in November 2016, and because Russia, albeit unconvincingly, claimed it killed him back in May. Yet in referencing the battle for Mosul, the ongoing North Korean nuclear crisis, and a recent Russian-U.S. cease fire in Syria, we should assess that this message was probably recorded some time in July or August.
Second, al-Baghdadi gives insight into how he intends his group to survive its loss of territory in Iraq and Syria. Most important here is al-Baghdadi’s effort to keep ISIS followers focused on the big picture of a global war. As usual, al-Baghdadi singles out Saudi Arabia, which he despises for its alliance with America. Expect a more aggressive ISIS focus on Saudi Arabia in the months ahead, as the group attempts to use Islamist dissatisfaction with Saudi reform efforts to bolster its support base.
But also expect ISIS expansion on the message that joining the Caliphate doesn’t take any training or presence in a particular locale, simply a pledge to the cause. An interesting element here is al-Baghdadi’s call on followers to attack non-Salafi media outlets. That agenda speaks to the fact that ISIS’ obsessive propaganda focus is not just on its own death-TV, but on the restraint of opposing viewpoints.
ISIS sees itself as an ordained missionary for purity on Earth, and hates being called out for what it actually is: a death cult.
Third, teasing the U.S. for allowing Russia to seize dominant strategic initiative (As I’ve noted, the U.S. must resist Russian objectives in Syria if we are to promote stability and reduce the appeal of groups like ISIS) in Syria, al-Baghdadi again shows his defining pathological hatred of America. Still, his message here is also designed to strengthen the confidence of ISIS followers that the U.S. is, at its core, a weak nation that will ultimately be defeated. In the context of their continuing losses to U.S. forces, the ISIS leader knows his followers need all the encouragement they can get.
This audiotape is relevant to Western security. Though the two events may not have been connected, following al-Baghdadi’s last message, ISIS attacked a Christmas market in Berlin. As I explained recently, the arrest of two suspected ISIS members in Paris suggests that the ISIS infiltration in Europe remains a significant challenge.
