Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes ran a miserable campaign. Donald Trump is unpopular. Democratic voters are energized. Republican Gov. Sam Brownback is the second-least popular governor in America.
And yet Republicans still hobbled across the finish line, preserving for themselves the U.S. House seat vacated by Mike Pompeo when he became Trump’s CIA director.
Democrat James Thompson began the evening with a large lead from early and absentee ballots, but the district’s huge Republican slant finally reasserted itself as the election day vote totals trickled in. Estes carried the day with about 53 percent of the vote — a decisive but underwhelming margin in a seat that Donald Trump won by 30 points.
Turnout in special elections is always well below that of general election races. But as in other special elections for state offices so far this year, Republican voters’ attrition was much higher than that of Democrats. Estes won only about one-third of the votes that Pompeo got in 2016; Thompson won more than half the number won by his Democratic opponent, Daniel Giroux.
So the Dems may be a minority in districts like this one, but they’re the ones showing up to vote. This is a wakeup call for Republicans, as a swing like this, if applied uniformly across all 435 districts, would obviously mean the end of their majority. That won’t happen, but even a much smaller swing could do the trick.
Next Tuesday, Republicans face what promises to be a much more difficult and well-funded challenge in Georgia’s sixth district, where an 18-candidate jungle primary takes place. If they can prevent Democrat Jon Ossoff from getting over 50 percent — a likelihood, but not a certainty — there will be a runoff election June 20 between the top two vote-getters.
