On Monday, China issued a stark warning to the United States saying that Trump must “cautiously and properly handle Taiwan-related issues.” The U.S. would do well to take that advice — although, probably not in the way Beijing intended. If the U.S. is serious about standing up for Taiwan and against China’s aggression, the Trump administration must have a plan of its own.
That warning comes as the U.S. State Department recalled three senior diplomats from countries that had recently severed ties with Taiwan to discuss how to address challenges from China. That’s a good place to start, but it’s a little alarming that the coming-up-with-a-plan stage has happened so late in the game. After all, it’s not like Beijing’s spending and influence has been secret. In recent years, with promises of cash and investment, Beijing has successfully eaten away at the dwindling list of countries that still maintain ties with the independently governed island that China claims as its own.
China has also flexed its economic muscles to pressure companies, most notably airlines, into complying with Beijing’s pretense that there is only one China. When Beijing demanded that airline route maps list Taiwan as part of China, rather than as an independent country, the White House initially dismissed that request as “Orwellian nonsense.” When Beijing’s deadline came, however, it became clear that Washington didn’t have a plan to back up those words, and every U.S. airline has since capitulated to Beijing’s request.
Airlines changed their maps and sovereign countries changed their diplomatic ties in exchange for development cash. These may seem like petty points, but the White House’s failure to have a plan in place before these became 11th hour concerns sets a worrying precedent.
Next time, Beijing’s demands might not be as insignificant as airline maps, and Trump and his administration would do well to have more than words ready to push back. To avoid armed conflict and its repercussions, which China is already preparing for, the U.S. should stick to a path of deterrence — for that to be successful, however, Washington must be prepared to act and be armed with a well-thought-out plan.
