When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met President Trump on Wednesday, he was asked about a two-state solution. Netanyahu’s answer focused not on the semantics of what a two-state solution would look like, but on satisfying two elements of substance: Will Palestinians recognize Israel as a state? How secure will Israel be considering any agreement?
Trump appeared flexible about solutions other than a two-state solution. It could open debate on alternatives by all involved parties. Could they even consider a return of the Palestinian territories to their former governments in Cairo and Amman?
Millions believe Jewish settlements on the West Bank pose a threat to the peaceful co-existence between Israel and the 400 million people of the Arab world. December’s United Nations Resolution 2334 and January’s Paris conference for “peace in the Middle East” were motivated by this sentiment.
Yet, Youth Bulge Theory, a theory which I have advanced, predicts that the consequences of both the resolution and the conference will descend the region into widespread violence, not peace. Simply put, my theory states that the current overabundance of young men in that region invariably leads to terrorism, civil war, crime and widespread violence.
Political attacks on Israel may establish a 23rd Arab state, or a 24th, if the rivalry between Fatah and Hamas remains as violent. But the 2005-2006 return of Gaza, when Israel cleared all settlements testing the “peace-for-land” trade-off, told its lesson.
First, the synagogues were immediately devastated by the “liberated.” What followed, however, could not be excused as a single act of revenge. With the elimination of the Israeli administration, posts became instantly available to far too many young Arabs. Fierce firebrands from Fatah and Hamas competed for the jobs with no political give and take. A bloody civil war ensued from December 2006 to June 2007 with Hamas the victor and many Fatah fedayeen murdered.
To date, there has been no reconciliation. Hamas has fought three wars against Israel, and a further number of armed engagements were avoided by a clandestine but effective cooperation between Fatah and Netanyahu to neutralize Hamas warriors from triggering a war from the West Bank.
My Youth Bulge Theory is developed from a painstaking analysis of demographics data over the entire history of mankind. It led me to a concept called the “index of war,” which can be applied to this part of the Middle East.
The population of the Gaza Strip has grown from 200,000 in 1950 to close to 2 million inhabitants today. The average male in Gaza is a mere 16.6 years old. The West Bank has seen a slightly less explosive population growth, with 2.7 million inhabitants and an average male age of 20.7 years. To better comprehend these numbers, the average male in the United States is 36.6 years old. In Germany, it’s 45.7 years old.
Gaza is straining under a war index of 6.5, which means that 1,000 males aged 55 to 64 approach retirement whilst 6,500 young men aged 15 to 19 enter the strife and competition for a position in life. The West Bank’s war index is around 5. For the U.S. (index 1) and Germany (index 0.66), such young men number only 1,000 and 660.
Neither war nor civil war in Gaza and the West Bank has ever weakened their capacity for war. Palestine can absorb losses and, simultaneously, increase its pool of fighting-age males. Israel’s war index of 1.7, however, only provides a slim margin of security.
Youth Bulge Theory evidences that when a war index exceeds 3 (i.e. when there are 3,000 or more teens for every 1,000 older men) violence is highly probable. Young men become desperate since they can neither emigrate (their first wish) nor find jobs at home. The boldest ones attack domestic elites and minorities, commit armed crimes and internecine murders, cause civil upheavals, and engage in international acts of war.
In the Palestinian case, as pretexts for such acts, holders of powerful positions and well-paid jobs are demonized as exploitative, corrupt or as infidels, whilst the aggressors present themselves as genuinely pious people who will never fall to corruption or blasphemy. The moment the usurpers attain power is the moment that the next generation of angry young men gets ready to hurl tried-and-tested accusations against the new rulers.
In the West Bank and Gaza, that simple but lethal mechanism is somewhat mitigated by billions of dollars from Washington via Stockholm to Berlin that pay for one of the world’s most bloated civil services. Though often criticized as a waste of money, at least the donors are keeping some of the hotspots quiet.
By 2050, today’s 4.5 million Palestinians (there were fewer than one million in 1950) will be a cool 12 million. What future Palestinian leader would use force to halt attacks on the Jews of Israel if such violence could reduce the domestic slaughter next to his palace? Even if Hamas renounced its genocidal attacks against Judaism, it could not restrain its own youth.
Even a Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state – a goal in which Jerusalem places so much hope — would have no pacifying effect whatsoever. The expectation that U.N. Resolution 2334 will reduce incitements to murdering Jews would simply be laughed away by young Palestinians. Western politicians can play with the fate of Israel as their idealistic schemes see fit but dictatorial regimes will happily take them for a ride. The Jews of the Near East, however, will need to fight tooth and nail for their lives for decades to come.
Afghanistan, which has been afflicted by a war index of between 6 and 7 since the 1970s, may help everyone to not confuse a Palestinian state with peace. For nearly 40 years Afghanistan has experienced wars and civil wars with no end in sight. There, the U.S. has suffered terrible losses of blood and treasure because one administration after another has been clueless about the demographic causes of the perpetual bloodshed.
If one prefers examples closer to Palestine, then one might as well look at Iraq or Yemen. Both countries are bleeding under a war index of 5.7. They have been in and out of war since the 1960s although the U.S. has sent massive armies, daunting bomber squadrons or sophisticated drones to bring peace.
If President Trump wishes to help the parties achieve peace in the Middle East, then he must focus the negotiation on the population growth of the West Bank and Gaza. Perhaps leaders must take measures such as focusing on the education of women or public awareness campaigns to raise the age at which women have their first child to curb the population growth.
Gunnar Heinsohn teaches war demography at the NATO Defense College in Rome.
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